5 accepted papers
We give an efficient algorithm for producing multi-dimensional forecasts in an online adversarial environment that have low bias subject to any polynomial number of conditioning events, that can depend both on external context and on our predictions themselves. We demonstrate the use of this algorit…
Existing algorithms for online conformal prediction---guaranteeing marginal coverage in adversarial settings---are variants of online gradient descent (OGD), but their analyses of worst-case coverage do not follow from the regret guarantee of OGD. What is the relationship between no-regret learning…
We develop fast distribution-free conformal prediction algorithms for obtaining multivalid coverage on exchangeable data in the batch setting. Multivalid coverage guarantees are stronger than marginal coverage guarantees in two ways: (1) They hold even conditional on group membership---that is, the…
We give a simple, generic conformal prediction method for sequential prediction that achieves target empirical coverage guarantees on adversarial data. It is computationally lightweight --- comparable to split conformal prediction --- but does not require having a held-out validation set, and so all…
UV radiation has been used as a disinfection strategy to deactivate a wide range of pathogens, but existing irradiation strategies do not ensure sufficient exposure of all environmental surfaces and/or require long disinfection times. We present a near-optimal coverage planner for mobile UV disinfec…