12 accepted papers
Reliable decision making pipelines powered by machine learning models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods that come with explicit safety guarantees. Conformal prediction provides such UQ by wrapping ML predictions into prediction sets, and recent work by \cite{kiyani2025decision} establi…
AI predictive systems increasingly support high-stakes decision making, yet robust decisions under uncertainty often rely on human capabilities beyond AI alone. This motivates collaborative approaches that combine human judgment with AI predictions. We study this problem through the lens of uncertai…
As humans increasingly rely on multi-round conversational AI for high-stakes decisions, principled frameworks are needed to ensure such interactions reliably improve decision quality. We adopt a human-centric view governed by two principles: counterfactual harm, ensuring the AI does not undermine hu…
Calibration has emerged as a foundational goal in trustworthy machine learning, in part because of its strong decision theoretic semantics. Independent of the underlying distribution, and independent of the decision maker's utility function, calibration promises that amongst all policies mapping pre…
Reasoning with LLMs increasingly unfolds inside a broader verification loop. Internally, systems use cheap checks, such as self-consistency or proxy rewards, which we call **weak verification**. Externally, users inspect outputs and steer the model through feedback until results are trustworthy, whi…
We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating t…
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safe deployment of generative AI models such as large language models (LLMs), especially in high-stakes applications. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a principled uncertainty quantification framework, but classical methods focus on regression and cla…
A fundamental question in data-driven decision making is how to quantify the uncertainty of predictions to inform risk-sensitive downstream actions, as often required in domains such as medicine. We develop a decision-theoretic foundation linking prediction sets to risk-averse decision-making, addre…
Existing algorithms for online conformal prediction---guaranteeing marginal coverage in adversarial settings---are variants of online gradient descent (OGD), but their analyses of worst-case coverage do not follow from the regret guarantee of OGD. What is the relationship between no-regret learning…
In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research has considered relaxations of full conditional guarantees, re…
Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the prediction sets remain informative. Despite significant efforts t…
Machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, and a thought-provoking paper by Bubeck and Sellke has analyzed this phenomenon through the lens of over-parameterization: interpolating smoothly the data requires significantly more parameters than simply memorizing it. However, t…