17 accepted papers
Causal reasoning and compositional reasoning are two core aspirations in AI. Measuring the extent of these behaviors requires principled evaluation methods. We explore a unified perspective that considers both behaviors simultaneously, termed *compositional causal reasoning* (CCR): the ability to in…
Recent Large Language Models (LLMs) have reported high accuracy on reasoning benchmarks. However, it is still unclear whether the observed results arise from true “reasoning” or from statistical recall of the training set. Inspired by the ladder of causation (Pearl, 2009) and its three levels (assoc…
Despite the increasing effectiveness of language models, their reasoning capabilities remain underdeveloped. In particular, causal reasoning through counterfactual question answering is lacking. This work aims to bridge this gap. We first derive novel metrics that balance accuracy in factual and cou…
Recent advances in AI have been significantly driven by the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to solve complex problems in ways that resemble human thinking. However, there is an ongoing debate about the extent to which LLMs are capable of actual reasoning. Central to this debate are two…
In drug development, early phase dose-finding clinical trials are carried out to identify an optimal dose to administer to patients in larger confirmatory clinical trials. Standard trial procedures do not optimize for participant benefit and do not consider participant heterogeneity, despite consequ…
We revisit widely used preferential Gaussian processes (PGP) by Chu and Ghahramani [2005] and challenge their modelling assumption that imposes rankability of data items via latent utility function values. We propose a generalisation of PGP which can capture more expressive latent preferential struc…
Predicting the impact of treatments from ob- servational data only still represents a major challenge despite recent significant advances in time series modeling. Treatment assignments are usually correlated with the predictors of the response, resulting in a lack of data support for counterfactual…
Feature attribution for kernel methods is often heuristic and not individualised for each prediction. To address this, we turn to the concept of Shapley values (SV), a coalition game theoretical framework that has previously been applied to different machine learning model interpretation tasks, such…
While causal models are becoming one of the mainstays of machine learning, the problem of uncertainty quantification in causal inference remains challenging. In this paper, we study the causal data fusion problem, where data arising from multiple causal graphs are combined to estimate the average tr…
We study the problem of performing a sequence of optimal interventions in a dynamic causal system where both the target variable of interest, and the inputs, evolve over time. This problem arises in a variety of domains including healthcare, operational research and policy design. Our approach, whic…
Finite-horizon sequential experimental design (SED) arises naturally in many contexts, including hyperparameter tuning in machine learning among more traditional settings. Computing the optimal policy for such problems requires solving Bellman equations, which are generally intractable. Most existin…
We consider the problem of optimising functions in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) of a Matérn kernel with smoothness parameter $u$ over the domain $[0,1]^d$ under noisy bandit feedback. Our contribution, the $\pi$-GP-UCB algorithm, is the first practical approach with guaranteed subline…
Bayesian quadrature (BQ) is a sample-efficient probabilistic numerical method to solve integrals of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions, yet so far, active BQ learning schemes focus merely on the integrand itself as information source, and do not allow for information transfer from cheaper, re…
Despite the recent progress in hyperparameter optimization (HPO), available benchmarks that resemble real-world scenarios consist of a few and very large problem instances that are expensive to solve. This blocks researchers and practitioners no only from systematically running large-scale compariso…
We tackle the problem of optimizing a black-box objective function defined over a highly-structured input space. This problem is ubiquitous in science and engineering. In machine learning, inferring the structure of a neural network or the Automatic Statistician (AS), where the optimal kernel combin…
The popularity of Bayesian optimization methods for efficient exploration of parameter spaces has lead to a series of papers applying Gaussian processes as surrogates in the optimization of functions. However, most proposed approaches only allow the exploration of the parameter space to occur sequen…
We present GLASSES: Global optimisation with Look-Ahead through Stochastic Simulation and Expected-loss Search. The majority of global optimisation approaches in use are myopic, in only considering the impact of the next function value; the non-myopic approaches that do exist are able to consider on…