9 accepted papers
Recent breakthroughs in solving reasoning, math and coding problems with Large Language Models (LLMs) have been enabled by investing substantial computation budgets at inference time. Therefore, inference speed is one of the most critical properties of LLM architectures, and there is a growing need…
Variational Bayesian posterior inference often requires simplifying approximations such as mean-field parametrisation to ensure tractability. However, prior work has associated the variational mean-field approximation for Bayesian neural networks with underfitting in the case of small datasets or la…
Many complex time series can be effectively subdivided into distinct regimes that exhibit persistent dynamics. Discovering the switching behavior and the statistical patterns in these regimes is important for understanding the underlying dynamical system. We propose the Recurrent Explicit Duration S…
Deep state-space models (DSSMs) enable temporal predictions by learning the underlying dynamics of observed sequence data. They are often trained by maximising the evidence lower bound. However, as we show, this does not ensure the model actually learns the underlying dynamics. We therefore propose…
This work addresses continual learning for non-stationary data, using Bayesian neural networks and memory-based online variational Bayes. We represent the posterior approximation of the network weights by a diagonal Gaussian distribution and a complementary memory of raw data. This raw data correspo…
This work addresses efficient inference and learning in switching Gaussian linear dynamical systems using a Rao-Blackwellised particle filter and a corresponding Monte Carlo objective. To improve the forecasting capabilities, we extend this classical model by conditionally linear state-to-switch dyn…
This paper tackles the modelling of large, complex and multivariate time series panels in a probabilistic setting. To this extent, we present a novel approach reconciling classical state space models with deep learning methods. By augmenting state space models with normalizing flows, we mitigate imp…
We propose to learn a hierarchical prior in the context of variational autoencoders to avoid the over-regularisation resulting from a standard normal prior distribution. To incentivise an informative latent representation of the data, we formulate the learning problem as a constrained optimisation p…
Neural samplers such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) or generative adversarial networks (GANs) approximate distributions by transforming samples from a simple random source—the latent space—to samples from a more complex distribution represented by a dataset. While the manifold hypothesis implies…