6 accepted papers
We propose Multivariate Quantile Function Forecaster (MQF2), a global probabilistic forecasting method constructed using a multivariate quantile function and investigate its application to multi-horizon forecasting. Prior approaches are either autoregressive, implicitly capturing the dependency stru…
Many complex time series can be effectively subdivided into distinct regimes that exhibit persistent dynamics. Discovering the switching behavior and the statistical patterns in these regimes is important for understanding the underlying dynamical system. We propose the Recurrent Explicit Duration S…
This paper presents a novel approach for hierarchical time series forecasting that produces coherent, probabilistic forecasts without requiring any explicit post-processing reconciliation. Unlike the state-of-the-art, the proposed method simultaneously learns from all time series in the hierarchy an…
This paper tackles the modelling of large, complex and multivariate time series panels in a probabilistic setting. To this extent, we present a novel approach reconciling classical state space models with deep learning methods. By augmenting state space models with normalizing flows, we mitigate imp…
In this paper, we propose a flexible method for probabilistic modeling with conditional quantile functions using monotonic regression splines. The shape of the spline is parameterized by a neural network whose parameters are learned by minimizing the continuous ranked probability score. Within this…
The problem of estimating sparse eigenvectors of a symmetric matrix attracts a lot of attention in many applications, especially those with high dimensional data set. While classical eigenvectors can be obtained as the solution of a maximization problem, existing approaches formulated this problem b…