33 accepted papers
We introduce a testing-by-betting framework that leverages predictions on unlabeled data to enhance the power of sequential hypothesis testing. Given limited samples from the joint distribution of $(X,Y)$, and additional unlabeled samples from the marginal of $X$, we ask how unlabeled data can be us…
We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets that cover the test label with a pre-specified probability. The…
The rapid proliferation of high-quality synthetic data---generated by advanced AI models or collected as auxiliary data from related tasks---presents both opportunities and challenges for statistical inference. This paper introduces a GEneral Synthetic-Powered Inference (GESPI) framework that wraps …
Recent advances in vision-language-action (VLA) models for robotics have highlighted the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification in sequential tasks. However, assessing and improving calibration in such settings remains mostly unexplored, especially when only partial trajectories are obser…
We propose a sequential test for distribution-shift detection that allows conformal test martingales (CTMs) to work under a fixed, reference-conditional setting. Existing CTM detectors construct test martingales by continually growing a reference set with each incoming sample, using it to assess how…
We develop a framework to quantify predictive uncertainty in survival analysis, providing a reliable lower predictive bound (LPB) for the true, unknown patient survival time. Recently, conformal prediction has been used to construct such valid LPBs for *type-I right-censored data*, with the guarante…
Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) is a recently proposed statistical inference technique for parameter estimation that leverages pseudo-labels on both labeled and unlabeled data to construct an unbiased, low-variance estimator. In this work, we extend its core idea to semi-supervised learning (SSL)…
Conformal prediction is a flexible framework for calibrating machine learning predictions, providing distribution-free statistical guarantees. In outlier detection, this calibration relies on a reference set of labeled inlier data to control the type-I error rate. However, obtaining a perfectly labe…
Causal masking is a fundamental component in Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT) models, playing a crucial role during training. Although GPTs can process the entire user prompt at once, the causal masking is applied to all input tokens step-by-step, mimicking the generation process. This impos…
Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that inco…
Early time classification algorithms aim to label a stream of features without processing the full input stream, while maintaining accuracy comparable to that achieved by applying the classifier to the entire input. In this paper, we introduce a statistical framework that can be applied to any seque…
We present a novel approach for test-time adaptation via online self-training, consisting of two components. First, we introduce a statistical framework that detects distribution shifts in the classifier's entropy values obtained on a stream of unlabeled samples. Second, we devise an online adaptati…
Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples are able to manipulate conformal methods to construct predi…
We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables. Our approach builds on conformal prediction, a powerful framework to construct prediction sets that are valid under the i.i.d assum…
Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal…
Conformal inference provides a general distribution-free method to rigorously calibrate the output of any machine learning algorithm for novelty detection. While this approach has many strengths, it has the limitation of being randomized, in the sense that it may lead to different results when analy…
$$ \newcommand{\rvar}[1]{\mathrm {#1}} \newcommand{\rvec}[1]{\boldsymbol{\mathrm{#1}}} $$ Quantile regression (QR) is a powerful tool for estimating one or more conditional quantiles of a target variable $\rvar{Y}$ given explanatory features $\rvec{X}$. A limitation of QR is that it is only defined…
This paper develops a model-free sequential test for conditional independence. The proposed test allows researchers to analyze an incoming i.i.d. data stream with any arbitrary dependency structure, and safely conclude whether a feature is conditionally associated with the response under study. We a…
Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic tool for constructing prediction sets that are valid under the common i.i.d. assumption, which has been applied to quantify the prediction uncertainty of deep net classifiers. In this paper, we generalize this framework to the case where adversaries exist dur…
We propose a new conditional dependence measure and a statistical test for conditional independence. The measure is based on the difference between analytic kernel embeddings of two well-suited distributions evaluated at a finite set of locations. We obtain its asymptotic distribution under the null…
Double machine learning is a statistical method for leveraging complex black-box models to construct approximately unbiased treatment effect estimates given observational data with high-dimensional covariates, under the assumption of a partially linear model. The idea is to first fit on a subset of…
Image-to-image regression is an important learning task, used frequently in biological imaging. Current algorithms, however, do not generally offer statistical guarantees that protect against a model’s mistakes and hallucinations. To address this, we develop uncertainty quantification techniques wit…
Meaningful uncertainty quantification in computer vision requires reasoning about semantic information---say, the hair color of the person in a photo or the location of a car on the street. To this end, recent breakthroughs in generative modeling allow us to represent semantic information in disenta…
Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be overconfident. We begin to address this problem in the context of m…
This paper develops a conformal method to compute prediction intervals for non-parametric regression that can automatically adapt to skewed data. Leveraging black-box machine learning algorithms to estimate the conditional distribution of the outcome using histograms, it translates their output into…
We develop a method to generate prediction intervals that have a user-specified coverage level across all regions of feature-space, a property called conditional coverage. A typical approach to this task is to estimate the conditional quantiles with quantile regression---it is well-known that this l…
We present a flexible framework for learning predictive models that approximately satisfy the equalized odds notion of fairness. This is achieved by introducing a general discrepancy functional that rigorously quantifies violations of this criterion. This differentiable functional is used as a penal…
Conformal inference, cross-validation+, and the jackknife+ are hold-out methods that can be combined with virtually any machine learning algorithm to construct prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. In this paper, we develop specialized versions of these techniques for categorical and un…
Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily conservative because they form intervals of constant or weakly varyi…
The recently proposed Multi-Layer Convolutional Sparse Coding (ML-CSC) model, consisting of a cascade of convolutional sparse layers, provides a new interpretation of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). Under this framework, the forward pass in a CNN is equivalent to an algorithm that estimates ne…
Image denoising is the most fundamental image enhancement task, and many algorithms have been proposed over the years for its solution. Interestingly, such an image denoising “engine” can be used to solve general inverse problems. Indeed, in our recent work we have presented the Regularization by De…
Convolutional Sparse Coding (CSC) is an increasingly popular model in the signal and image processing communities, tackling some of the limitations of traditional patch-based sparse representations. Although several works have addressed the dictionary learning problem under this model, these relied…
In this paper we propose a way to improve the K-SVD image denoising algorithm. The suggested method aims to reduce the gap that exists between the local processing (sparse-coding of overlapping patches) and the global image recovery (obtained by averaging the overlapping patches). Inspired by game-t…