21 accepted papers
Diffusion language models, especially masked discrete diffusion models, have achieved great success recently. While there are some theoretical and primary empirical results showing the advantages of latent reasoning with looped transformers or continuous CoT, continuous diffusion models typically un…
We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets that cover the test label with a pre-specified probability. The…
Diffusion models have excelled at generative tasks for both continuous and token-based domains, but their application to discrete ordinal data remains underdeveloped. We present \emph{CountsDiff}, a diffusion framework designed to natively model distributions on the natural numbers. CountsDiff exten…
A core challenge in modern AI model development is obtaining high-quality evaluation metrics in a cost-effective way. Such evaluation often involves tradeoffs between expensive, high-quality measurements and a variety of lower-quality proxies. We introduce Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (Mult…
Contextual sequential decision-making is fundamental to machine learning, with applications in bandits, sequential hypothesis testing, and online risk control. These tasks often rely on statistical measures like expectation, variance, and quantiles. In this paper, we propose a universal algorithmic…
Diffusion models can be improved with additional guidance towards more effective representations of input. Indeed, prior empirical work has already shown that aligning internal representations of the diffusion model with those of pre-trained models improves generation quality. In this paper, we pres…
In this paper we introduce Hierarchical Diffusion Language Models (HDLM) -- a novel family of discrete diffusion models for language modeling. HDLM builds on a hierarchical vocabulary where low-level tokens with detailed semantics are surjectively mapped to high-level tokens with coarse-grained mean…
Estimating associations between spatial covariates and responses — rather than merely predicting responses — is central to environmental science, epidemiology, and economics. For instance, public health officials might be interested in whether air pollution has a strictly positive association with a…
Reasoning large language models achieve impressive test-time scaling by thinking for longer, but this performance gain comes at significant compute cost. Directly limiting test-time budget hurts overall performance, but not all problems are equally difficult. We propose thought calibration to decide
We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an $\mathcal{O}(1/n)$ factor. We also…
Motivated by the emergence of decentralized machine learning (ML) ecosystems, we study the delegation of data collection. Taking the field of contract theory as our starting point, we design optimal and near-optimal contracts that deal with two fundamental information asymmetries that arise in decen…
From the social sciences to machine learning, it is well documented that metrics do not always align with social welfare. In healthcare, Dranove et al. (2003) showed that publishing surgery mortality metrics actually harmed sicker patients by increasing provider selection behavior. Using a principal…
We introduce a method for online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes. Like previous methods, ours possesses a retrospective guarantee of coverage for arbitrary sequences. However, unlike previous methods, we can simultaneously estimate a population quantile when it exists. Our theory and e…
Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems, we would like to obtain a stronger guarantee--that for test…
Image-to-image regression is an important learning task, used frequently in biological imaging. Current algorithms, however, do not generally offer statistical guarantees that protect against a model’s mistakes and hallucinations. To address this, we develop uncertainty quantification techniques wit…
Uncertainty quantification is essential for the reliable deployment of machine learning models to high-stakes application domains. Uncertainty quantification is all the more challenging when training distribution and test distribution are different, even if the distribution shifts are mild. Despite…
Meaningful uncertainty quantification in computer vision requires reasoning about semantic information---say, the hair color of the person in a photo or the location of a car on the street. To this end, recent breakthroughs in generative modeling allow us to represent semantic information in disenta…
We develop a method to generate prediction intervals that have a user-specified coverage level across all regions of feature-space, a property called conditional coverage. A typical approach to this task is to estimate the conditional quantiles with quantile regression---it is well-known that this l…
An increasingly common setting in machine learning involves multiple parties, each with their own data, who want to jointly make predictions on future test points. Agents wish to benefit from the collective expertise of the full set of agents to make better predictions than they would individually,…
Convolutional image classifiers can achieve high predictive accuracy, but quantifying their uncertainty remains an unresolved challenge, hindering their deployment in consequential settings. Existing uncertainty quantification techniques, such as Platt scaling, attempt to calibrate the network’s pr…
We present a flexible framework for learning predictive models that approximately satisfy the equalized odds notion of fairness. This is achieved by introducing a general discrepancy functional that rigorously quantifies violations of this criterion. This differentiable functional is used as a penal…