26 accepted papers
We propose a method for evaluating the robustness of widely used LLM ranking systems---variants of a Bradley--Terry model---to dropping a worst-case very small fraction of preference data. Our approach is computationally fast and easy to adopt. When we apply our method to matchups from popular LLM r…
Spatial prediction tasks are key to weather forecasting, studying air pollution impacts, and other scientific endeavors. Determining how much to trust predictions made by statistical or physical methods is essential for the credibility of scientific conclusions. Unfortunately, classical approaches f…
Practitioners often aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. E.g. given single-cell sequencing data, scientists would like to learn how gene expression changes over a cell’s life cycle. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we can acce…
Estimating associations between spatial covariates and responses — rather than merely predicting responses — is central to environmental science, epidemiology, and economics. For instance, public health officials might be interested in whether air pollution has a strictly positive association with a…
Construction of a scaffold structure that supports a desired motif, conferring protein function, shows promise for the design of vaccines and enzymes. But a general solution to this motif-scaffolding problem remains open. Current machine-learning techniques for scaffold design are either limited to…
Oceanographers are interested in predicting ocean currents and identifying divergences in a current vector field based on sparse observations of buoy velocities. Since we expect current dynamics to be smooth but highly non-linear, Gaussian processes (GPs) offer an attractive model. But we show that…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are often used in clustering since they guarantee asymptotically exact expectations in the infinite-time limit. In finite time, though, slow mixing often leads to poor performance. Modern computing environments offer massive parallelism, but naive implementati…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are used to make medical and scientific decisions, including in cardiac care and monitoring of carbon dioxide emissions. Notably, the choice of GP kernel is often somewhat arbitrary. In particular, uncountably many kernels typically align with qualitative prior knowledge (e.…
Models like LASSO and ridge regression are extensively used in practice due to their interpretability, ease of use, and strong theoretical guarantees. Cross-validation (CV) is widely used for hyperparameter tuning in these models, but do practical methods minimize the true out-of-sample loss? A re…
Scientists and engineers are often interested in learning the number of subpopulations (or components) present in a data set. A common suggestion is to use a finite mixture model (FMM) with a prior on the number of components. Past work has shown the resulting FMM component-count posterior is consis…
Hierarchical Bayesian methods enable information sharing across regression problems on multiple groups of data. While standard practice is to model regression parameters (effects) as (1) exchangeable across the groups and (2) correlated to differing degrees across covariates, we show that this appro…
Many modern data analyses benefit from explicitly modeling dependence structure in data -- such as measurements across time or space, ordered words in a sentence, or genes in a genome. A gold standard evaluation technique is structured cross-validation (CV), which leaves out some data subset (such a…
Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) can be particularly accurate among cross-validation (CV) variants for machine learning assessment tasks – e.g., assessing methods’ error or variability. But it is expensive to re-fit a model $N$ times for a dataset of size $N$. Previous work has shown that appr…
Many recent advances in machine learning are driven by a challenging trifecta: large data size $N$, high dimensions, and expensive algorithms. In this setting, cross-validation (CV) serves as an important tool for model assessment. Recent advances in approximate cross validation (ACV) provide accura…
Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of post-hoc accuracy measures that are both theoretically justified…
The error or variability of machine learning algorithms is often assessed by repeatedly refitting a model with different weighted versions of the observed data. The ubiquitous tools of cross-validation (CV) and the bootstrap are examples of this technique. These methods are powerful in large part du…
Kernel methods offer the flexibility to learn complex relationships in modern, large data sets while enjoying strong theoretical guarantees on quality. Unfortunately, these methods typically require cubic running time in the data set size, a prohibitive cost in the large- data setting. Random featur…
Due to the ease of modern data collection, applied statisticians often have access to a large set of covariates that they wish to relate to some observed outcome. Generalized linear models (GLMs) offer a particularly interpretable framework for such an analysis. In these high-dimensional problems, t…
Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible class of priors for nonparametric Bayesian regression, but popular GP posterior inference methods are typically prohibitively slow or lack desirable finite-data guarantees on quality. We develop a scalable approach to approximate GP regression, with finite-d…
Discovering interaction effects on a response of interest is a fundamental problem faced in biology, medicine, economics, and many other scientific disciplines. In theory, Bayesian methods for discovering pairwise interactions enjoy many benefits such as coherent uncertainty quantification, the abil…
Coherent uncertainty quantification is a key strength of Bayesian methods. But modern algorithms for approximate Bayesian posterior inference often sacrifice accurate posterior uncertainty estimation in the pursuit of scalability. This work shows that previous Bayesian coreset construction algorithm…
Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be useful for decision-making or discovering causal relationships. However, traditional methods often fail in modern applications, which exhibit a larger number of observed variables than data points. The resulting uncertainty about the underlying netwo…
Generalized linear models (GLMs)---such as logistic regression, Poisson regression, and robust regression---provide interpretable models for diverse data types. Probabilistic approaches, particularly Bayesian ones, allow coherent estimates of uncertainty, incorporation of prior information, and shar…
The use of Bayesian methods in large-scale data settings is attractive because of the rich hierarchical models, uncertainty quantification, and prior specification they provide. Standard Bayesian inference algorithms are computationally expensive, however, making their direct application to large da…
Many popular network models rely on the assumption of (vertex) exchangeability, in which the distribution of the graph is invariant to relabelings of the vertices. However, the Aldous-Hoover theorem guarantees that these graphs are dense or empty with probability one, whereas many real-world graphs…
Mean field variational Bayes (MFVB) is a popular posterior approximation method due to its fast runtime on large-scale data sets. However, a well known failing of MFVB is that it underestimates the uncertainty of model variables (sometimes severely) and provides no information about model variable c…