201 accepted papers
A digital twin (DT) is a virtual model of a real-world system that can assist decision-making by simulating scenarios induced by different policies. However, the typical design process of machine learning-based DTs does not optimise for this objective. We prove that, when model capacity is limited, …
Latent diffusion has achieved remarkable success in image generation, with high sampling efficiency. However, this framework might suffer from posterior collapse when applied to time series. In this work, we first show that latent diffusion with a collapsed posterior degenerates into a much weaker g…
Inferring continuous probability paths from sparse snapshots is a fundamental challenge in domains like single-cell biology, where high-fidelity data acquisition is often destructive and constrained by prohibitive sequencing costs. This motivates the need for active learning strategies to strategica…
Modern clinical practice relies on evidence-based guidelines implemented as compact scoring systems composed of a small number of interpretable decision rules. While machine-learning models achieve strong performance, many fail to translate into routine clinical use due to misalignment with workflow…
Inferring dynamics from population snapshots is a fundamental challenge in machine learning and biology. In scRNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq), destructive measurements preclude direct tracking of individual cells across time, making trajectory inference underdetermined. Optimal Transport (OT) provides a …
Large neural networks are typically trained for a fixed computational budget, creating a rigid trade-off between performance and efficiency that is ill-suited for deployment in resource-constrained or dynamic environments. Existing approaches to this problem present a difficult choice: training a di…
Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks---such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction---by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where…
Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (HTE) from observational data is essential in fields such as healthcare and policy-making, where randomized experiments are often impractical. While representation learning-based methods have shown promise, recent studies suggest that tree-based approaches …
As LLM-powered agents have been used for high-stakes decision-making, such as clinical diagnosis, it becomes critical to develop reliable verification of their decisions to facilitate trustworthy deployment. Yet, existing verifiers usually underperform owing to a lack of domain knowledge and limited…
Neural networks (NNs) often have critical behavioural trade-offs that are set at design time with hyperparameters—such as reward weighting in reinforcement learning or quantile targets in regression. Post-deployment, however, user preferences can evolve, making initially optimal settings undesirabl…
Differentiable approaches to causal discovery have shown promise in learning DAG structures via continuous optimization, but their theoretical guarantees are largely restricted to models with homoscedastic noise or known noise distribution. In particular, existing methods based on mean squared error…
Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a promising avenue for scientific discovery, yet their application to symbolic regression is often constrained by inefficient search strategies and coarse feedback signals. Current methods typically guide LLMs using scalar metrics (e.g., global Mean Squared Error),…
Mathematical modeling is the process of understanding and predicting complex real-world phenomena. Traditionally, it is a time-intensive effort reliant on deep human expertise and iterative refinement. Automating this intricate process, therefore, offers the potential to significantly accelerate d…
Least privilege is a core security principle: grant each request only the minimum access needed to achieve its goal. Deployed language models almost never follow it, instead being exposed through a single API endpoint that serves all users and requests. This gap exists not because least privilege wo…
Evaluating the performance of large language models (LLMs) from human preference data is crucial for obtaining LLM leaderboards. However, many existing approaches either rely on restrictive parametric assumptions or lack valid uncertainty quantification when flexible machine learning methods are use…
Autoformulation is an emerging field that uses large language models (LLMs) to translate natural-language descriptions of decision-making problems into formal mathematical formulations. Existing works have focused on autoformulating mathematical optimization problems for $\textit{one-shot}$ decision…
Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in time-varying settings is particularly challenging, as the probability of observing certain treatment sequences decreases exponentially with longer prediction horizons. Thus, the observed data contain little support for many plausible treatment seq…
Peer review, the bedrock of scientific advancement in machine learning (ML), is strained by a crisis of scale. Exponential growth in manuscript submissions to premier ML venues such as NeurIPS, ICML, and ICLR is outpacing the finite capacity of qualified reviewers, leading to concerns about review q…
Modern LLMs show mastery over an ever-growing range of skills, as well as the ability to compose them flexibly. However, extending model capabilities to new skills in a scalable manner is an open-problem: fine-tuning and parameter-efficient variants risk catastrophic forgetting, while context-based …
Emerging agentic marketplaces provide the economic infrastructure for matching and coordinating the large amounts of AI agents used in agentic swarms. Unlike human workers, AI agents can operate on multiple jobs simultaneously, acquire skills rapidly, and labor without wage floors. These differences…
Making treatment effect estimation actionable for personalized decision-making requires overcoming the costs and delays of acquiring necessary features. While many machine learning models estimate Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE), they mostly assume that _all_ relevant features are readi…
Despite the impressive performance of large language models (LLMs) across various benchmarks, their ability to address ambiguously specified problems—frequent in real-world interactions—remains underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce a formal definition of task ambiguity and frame the probl…
Estimating causal effects is crucial in domains like healthcare, economics, and education. Despite advances in machine learning (ML) for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE), the practical adoption of these methods remains limited, due to the complexities of implementing, tuning,…
Mathematical optimization is fundamental to decision-making across diverse domains, from operations research to healthcare. Yet, translating real-world problems into optimization models remains a difficult task, often demanding specialized expertise. This paper approaches the problem of $\textit{aut…
Symbolic regression (SR) is a machine learning approach aimed at discovering mathematical closed-form expressions that best fit a given dataset. Traditional complexity measures in SR, such as the number of terms or expression tree depth, often fail to capture the difficulty of specific analytical ta…
Schema matching -- the task of finding matches between attributes across disparate data sources with different tables and hierarchies -- is critical for creating interoperable machine learning (ML)-ready data. Addressing this fundamental data-centric problem has wide implications, especially in doma…
A challenge in human-AI decision-making is to balance three factors: the *correctness* of predictions, the *cost* of knowledge and reasoning complexity, and the confidence about whether to *abstain* from automated answers or escalate to human experts. In this work, we present a cascaded LLM decision…
Digital twins are models of real-world systems that can simulate their dynamics in response to potential actions. In complex settings, the state and action variables, and available data and knowledge relevant to a system can constantly change, requiring digital twins to continuously update with thes…
Decision trees are a crucial class of models offering robust predictive performance and inherent interpretability across various domains, including healthcare, finance, and logistics. However, current tree induction methods often face limitations such as suboptimal solutions from greedy methods or p…
The introduction of the NOTEARS algorithm resulted in a wave of research on differentiable Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) learning. Differentiable DAG learning transforms the combinatorial problem of identifying the DAG underlying a Structural Causal Model (SCM) into a constrained continuous optimizat…
Constructing robust simulators is essential for asking "what if?" questions and guiding policy in critical domains like healthcare and logistics. However, existing methods often struggle, either failing to generalize beyond historical data or, when using Large Language Models (LLMs), suffering from…
Distribution shifts in time-series data are complex due to temporal dependencies, multivariable interactions, and trend changes. However, robust methods often rely on structural assumptions that lack thorough empirical validation, limiting their practical applicability. In order to support an empi…
Causal inference is essential for developing and evaluating medical interventions, yet real-world medical datasets are often difficult to access due to regulatory barriers. This makes synthetic data a potentially valuable asset that enables these medical analyses, along with the development of new i…
Data-driven modeling of dynamical systems is a crucial area of machine learning. In many scenarios, a thorough understanding of the model’s behavior becomes essential for practical applications. For instance, understanding the behavior of a pharmacokinetic model, constructed as part of drug developm…
Any method's development and practical application is limited by our ability to measure its reliability. The popularity of generative modeling emphasizes the importance of good synthetic data metrics. Unfortunately, previous works have found many failure cases in current metrics, for example lack of…
Developing a better understanding of surprising or counterintuitive phenomena has constituted a significant portion of deep learning research in recent years. These include double descent, grokking, and the lottery ticket hypothesis -- among many others. Works in this area often develop *ad hoc hypo…
Self-improving agents aim to continuously acquire new capabilities with minimal supervision. However, current approaches face two key limitations: their self-improvement processes are often rigid, fail to generalize across tasks domains, and struggle to scale with increasing agent capabilities. We a…
Reward modelling from preference data is a crucial step in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values, requiring robust generalisation to novel prompt-response pairs. In this work, we propose to frame this problem in a causal paradigm, providing the rich toolbox of causality to identify…
Diffusion models are mainly studied on image data. However, non-image data (e.g., tabular data) are also prevalent in real applications and tend to be noisy due to some inevitable factors in the stage of data collection, degrading the generation quality of diffusion models. In this paper, we conside…
Evaluating the open-form textual responses generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) typically requires measuring the semantic similarity of the response to a (human generated) reference. However, there is evidence that current semantic similarity methods may capture syntactic or lexical forms over…
Clinical reasoning in medicine is a hypothesis-driven process where physicians refine diagnoses from limited information through targeted history, physical examination, and diagnostic investigations. In contrast, current medical benchmarks for large language models (LLMs) primarily assess knowledge…
While black-box approaches are commonly used for data-driven modeling of dynamical systems, they often obscure a system's underlying behavior and properties, limiting adoption in areas such as medicine and pharmacology. A two-step process of discovering ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and the…
Consider the problem of testing whether the outputs of a large language model (LLM) system change under an arbitrary intervention, such as an input perturbation or changing the model variant. We cannot simply compare two LLM outputs since they might differ due to the stochastic nature of the system,…
Active Feature Acquisition is an instance-wise, sequential decision making problem. The aim is to dynamically select which feature to measure based on current observations, independently for each test instance. Common approaches either use Reinforcement Learning, which experiences training difficult…
Real-world human decision-making often relies on strategic planning, where *high-level* goals guide the formulation of sub-goals and subsequent actions, as evidenced by domains such as healthcare, business, and urban policy. Despite notable successes in controlled settings, conventional reinforcemen…
Developing autonomous agents capable of performing complex, multi-step decision-making tasks specified in natural language remains a significant challenge, particularly in realistic settings where labeled data is scarce and real-time experimentation is impractical. Existing reinforcement learning (R…
There is growing interest in using machine learning (ML) to support clinical diagnosis, but most approaches rely on static, fully observed datasets and fail to reflect the sequential, resource-aware reasoning clinicians use in practice. Diagnosis remains complex and error prone, especially in high-p…
A significant challenge in machine learning, particularly in noisy and low-data environments, lies in effectively incorporating inductive biases to enhance data efficiency and robustness. Despite the success of informed machine learning methods, designing algorithms with explicit inductive biases re…
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating the effect of new medical treatments. Treatments must pass stringent regulatory conditions in order to be approved for widespread use, yet even after the regulatory barriers are crossed, real-world challenges might arise: Who s…
Decision-making across various fields, such as medicine, heavily relies on conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). Practitioners commonly make decisions by checking whether the estimated CATE is positive, even though the decision-making performance of modern CATE estimators is poorly understo…
Current screening programs that focus on improving patient health while minimizing screening costs are tailored for individual diseases. Designing unified screening programs for multiple diseases requires carefully balancing competing disease risks, which is an open problem. In this work, we address…
We consider the problem of auditing *black-box* large language models (LLMs) to ensure they behave reliably when deployed in production settings, particularly in high-stakes domains such as legal, medical, and regulatory compliance. Existing approaches for LLM auditing often focus on isolated aspect…
Unobserved confounding is common in many applications, making causal inference from observational data challenging. As a remedy, causal sensitivity analysis is an important tool to draw causal conclusions under unobserved confounding with mathematical guarantees. In this paper, we propose NeuralCSA,…
Concept-based learning, a promising approach in machine learning, emphasizes the value of high-level representations called concepts. However, despite growing interest in concept-bottleneck models (CBMs), there is a lack of clear understanding regarding the properties of concept sets and their impac…
Conducting experiments and gathering data for machine learning models is a complex and expensive endeavor, particularly when confronted with limited information. Typically, extensive _experiments_ to obtain features and labels come with a significant acquisition cost, making it impractical to carry…
Clinical trials are typically run in order to understand the effects of a new treatment on a given population of patients. However, patients in large populations rarely respond the same way to the same treatment. This heterogeneity in patient responses necessitates trials that investigate effects on…
Digital Twins (DTs) are computational models that simulate the states and temporal dynamics of real-world systems, playing a crucial role in prediction, understanding, and decision-making across diverse domains. However, existing approaches to DTs often struggle to generalize to unseen conditions in…
The predominant *de facto* paradigm of testing ML models relies on either using only held-out data to compute aggregate evaluation metrics or by assessing the performance on different subgroups. However, such *data-only testing* methods operate under the restrictive assumption that the available em…
Machine Learning (ML) in low-data settings remains an underappreciated yet crucial problem. Hence, data augmentation methods to increase the sample size of datasets needed for ML are key to unlocking the transformative potential of ML in data-deprived regions and domains. Unfortunately, the limited…
Identification and appropriate handling of inconsistencies in data at deployment time is crucial to reliably use machine learning models. While recent data-centric methods are able to identify such inconsistencies with respect to the training set, they suffer from two key limitations: (1) suboptimal…
The discovery of dynamical systems is crucial across a range of fields, including pharmacology, epidemiology, and physical sciences. *Accurate* and *interpretable* modeling of these systems is essential for understanding complex temporal processes, optimizing interventions, and minimizing adverse ef…
Deep learning sometimes appears to work in unexpected ways. In pursuit of a deeper understanding of its surprising behaviors, we investigate the utility of a simple yet accurate model of a trained neural network consisting of a sequence of first-order approximations telescoping out into a single emp…
Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus naturally encode part of their domain knowledge, and can help ma…
Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has been credited as the key advance that has allowed Large Language Models (LLMs) to effectively follow instructions and produce useful assistance. Classically, this involves generating completions from the LLM in response to a query before using a…
Discovering features with synergistic interactions in multi-view data, that provide more information gain when considered together than when considered separately, is particularly valuable. This fosters a more comprehensive understanding of the target outcome from diverse perspectives (views). Howev…
Offline preference optimization is a key method for enhancing and controlling the quality of Large Language Model (LLM) outputs. Typically, preference optimization is approached as an offline supervised learning task using manually crafted convex loss functions. While these methods are based on theo…
Characterizing samples that are difficult to learn from is crucial to developing highly performant ML models. This has led to numerous Hardness Characterization Methods (HCMs) that aim to identify ''hard'' samples. However, there is a lack of consensus regarding the definition and evaluation of ''ha…
Transformer-based large language models (LLMs) are constrained by the fixed context window of the underlying transformer architecture, hindering their ability to produce long and coherent outputs. Memory-augmented LLMs are a promising solution, but current approaches cannot handle long output genera…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful approach for optimizing complex and expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. Its importance is underscored in many applications, notably including hyperparameter tuning, but its efficacy depends on efficiently balancing exploration and exploitation. While t…
Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data is relevant for many applications such as personalized medicine. Here, we focus on the widespread setting where the observational data come from multiple environments, such as different hospitals, physicians, or count…
Inferring unbiased treatment effects has received widespread attention in the machine learning community. In recent years, our community has proposed numerous solutions in standard settings, high-dimensional treatment settings, and even longitudinal settings. While very diverse, the solution has mos…
Although diffusion models (DMs) have shown promising performances in a number of tasks (e.g., speech synthesis and image generation), they might suffer from error propagation because of their sequential structure. However, this is not certain because some sequential models, such as Conditional Rando…
Recent text and image foundation models are incredibly impressive, and these models are attracting an ever-increasing portion of research resources. In this position piece we aim to shift the ML research community's priorities ever so slightly to a different modality: tabular data. Tabular data is t…
Estimating causal quantities from observational data is crucial for understanding the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments. However, to make reliable inferences, medical practitioners require not only estimating averaged causal quantities, such as the conditional average treatment effect,…
In this study, we aim to enhance the arithmetic reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) through zero-shot prompt optimization. We identify a previously overlooked objective of query dependency in such optimization and elucidate two ensuing challenges that impede the successful and economic…
Constructing valid prediction intervals rather than point estimates is a well-established approach for uncertainty quantification in the regression setting. Models equipped with this capacity output an interval of values in which the ground truth target will fall with some prespecified probability.…
Real-world machine learning systems often encounter model performance degradation due to distributional shifts in the underlying data generating process (DGP). Existing approaches to addressing shifts, such as concept drift adaptation, are limited by their *reason-agnostic* nature. By choosing from…
Symbolic regression has excelled in uncovering equations from physics, chemistry, biology, and related disciplines. However, its effectiveness becomes less certain when applied to experimental data lacking inherent closed-form expressions. Empirically derived relationships, such as entire stress-str…
Because diffusion models have shown impressive performances in a number of tasks, such as image synthesis, there is a trend in recent works to prove (with certain assumptions) that these models have strong approximation capabilities. In this paper, we show that current diffusion models actually have…
Fourier analysis has been an instrumental tool in the development of signal processing. This leads us to wonder whether this framework could similarly benefit generative modelling. In this paper, we explore this question through the scope of time series diffusion models. More specifically, we analyz…
Transparent machine learning (ML) models are essential for ensuring interpretability and trustworthiness in decision-making systems, particularly in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, finance, and criminal justice. While transparent machine learning models have been proposed for classification…
Conventional statistical wisdom established a well-understood relationship between model complexity and prediction error, typically presented as a _U-shaped curve_ reflecting a transition between under- and overfitting regimes. However, motivated by the success of overparametrized neural networks, r…
Learning controllers with offline data in decision-making systems is an essential area of research due to its potential to reduce the risk of applications in real-world systems. However, in responsibility-sensitive settings such as healthcare, decision accountability is of paramount importance, yet…
Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML lite…
The control of continuous-time environments while actively deciding when to take costly observations in time is a crucial yet unexplored problem, particularly relevant to real-world scenarios such as medicine, low-power systems, and resource management. Existing approaches either rely on continuous-…
We study the problem of adaptively identifying patient subpopulations that benefit from a given treatment during a confirmatory clinical trial. This type of adaptive clinical trial has been thoroughly studied in biostatistics, but has been allowed only limited adaptivity so far. Here, we aim to rela…
Numerous real-world systems, ranging from healthcare to energy grids, involve users competing for finite and potentially scarce resources. Designing policies for resource allocation in such real-world systems is challenging for many reasons, including the changing nature of user types and their (pos…
Evaluating the performance of machine learning models on diverse and underrepresented subgroups is essential for ensuring fairness and reliability in real-world applications. However, accurately assessing model performance becomes challenging due to two main issues: (1) a scarcity of test data, espe…
Closed-form differential equations, including partial differential equations and higher-order ordinary differential equations, are one of the most important tools used by scientists to model and better understand natural phenomena. Discovering these equations directly from data is challenging becaus…
Symbolic regression (SR) aims to discover concise closed-form mathematical equations from data, a task fundamental to scientific discovery. However, the problem is highly challenging because closed-form equations lie in a complex combinatorial search space. Existing methods, ranging from heuristic s…
Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) encode a lot of information about a particular distribution in their structure. However, compute required to infer these structures is typically super-exponential in the number of variables, as inference requires a sweep of a combinatorially large space of potential st…
Interpretability methods are valuable only if their explanations faithfully describe the explained model. In this work, we consider neural networks whose predictions are invariant under a specific symmetry group. This includes popular architectures, ranging from convolutional to graph neural network…
Deep generative models learn highly complex and non-linear representations to generate realistic synthetic data. While they have achieved notable success in computer vision and natural language processing, similar advances have been less demonstrable in the tabular domain. This is partially because…
Conformal prediction is a powerful distribution-free tool for uncertainty quantification, establishing valid prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees. To produce valid intervals which are also adaptive to the difficulty of each instance, a common approach is to compute normalized nonconfor…
Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to…
Ensembles of machine learning models have been well established as a powerful method of improving performance over a single model. Traditionally, ensembling algorithms train their base learners independently or sequentially with the goal of optimizing their joint performance. In the case of deep ens…
This paper addresses unsupervised representation learning on tabular data containing multiple views generated by distinct sources of measurement. Traditional methods, which tackle this problem using the multi-view framework, are constrained by predefined assumptions that assume feature sets share th…
Data is the foundation of most science. Unfortunately, sharing data can be obstructed by the risk of violating data privacy, impeding research in fields like healthcare. Synthetic data is a potential solution. It aims to generate data that has the same distribution as the original data, but that doe…
Many real-world offline reinforcement learning (RL) problems involve continuous-time environments with delays. Such environments are characterized by two distinctive features: firstly, the state x(t) is observed at irregular time intervals, and secondly, the current action a(t) only affects the futu…
Synthetic data serves as an alternative in training machine learning models, particularly when real-world data is limited or inaccessible. However, ensuring that synthetic data mirrors the complex nuances of real-world data is a challenging task. This paper addresses this issue by exploring the pote…
Timely outcome prediction is essential in healthcare to enable early detection and intervention of adverse events. However, in longitudinal follow-ups to patients' health status, cost-efficient acquisition of patient covariates is usually necessary due to the significant expense involved in screenin…
Synthetic data is becoming an increasingly promising technology, and successful applications can improve privacy, fairness, and data democratization. While there are many methods for generating synthetic tabular data, the task remains non-trivial and unexplored for specific scenarios. One such scena…
Accessible high-quality data is the bread and butter of machine learning research, and the demand for data has exploded as larger and more advanced ML models are built across different domains. Yet, real data often contain sensitive information, are subject to various biases, and are costly to acqui…
Generating synthetic data through generative models is gaining interest in the ML community and beyond, promising a future where datasets can be tailored to individual needs. Unfortunately, synthetic data is usually not perfect, resulting in potential errors in downstream tasks. In this work we expl…
Clustering time-series data in healthcare is crucial for clinical phenotyping to understand patients’ disease progression patterns and to design treatment guidelines tailored to homogeneous patient subgroups. While rich temporal dynamics enable the discovery of potential clusters beyond static corre…
Despite their success with unstructured data, deep neural networks are not yet a panacea for structured tabular data. In the tabular domain, their efficiency crucially relies on various forms of regularization to prevent overfitting and provide strong generalization performance. Existing regularizat…
Data quality is crucial for robust machine learning algorithms, with the recent interest in data-centric AI emphasizing the importance of training data characterization. However, current data characterization methods are largely focused on classification settings, with regression settings largely un…
Missing data is a systemic problem in practical scenarios that causes noise and bias when estimating treatment effects. This makes treatment effect estimation from data with missingness a particularly tricky endeavour. A key reason for this is that standard assumptions on missingness are rendered in…
We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from time-to-event data in the presence of competing events. Albeit its great practical relevance, this problem has received little attention compared to its counterparts studying HTE estimation without time-to-event data or co…
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods identify. In this work, we propose a framework for categorizing…
In many scenarios, decision-makers must commit to long-term actions until their resolution before receiving the payoff of said actions, and usually, staying committed to such actions incurs continual costs. For instance, in healthcare, a newly-discovered treatment cannot be marketed to patients unti…
Estimating personalized effects of treatments is a complex, yet pervasive problem. To tackle it, recent developments in the machine learning (ML) literature on heterogeneous treatment effect estimation gave rise to many sophisticated, but opaque, tools: due to their flexibility, modularity and abili…
In many real world problems, features do not act alone but in combination with each other. For example, in genomics, diseases might not be caused by any single mutation but require the presence of multiple mutations. Prior work on feature selection either seeks to identify individual features or can…
Concept-based explanations permit to understand the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) through the lens of concepts specified by users. Existing methods assume that the examples illustrating a concept are mapped in a fixed direction of the DNN's latent space. When this holds true, the concep…
Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer "what-if" questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time intervals between observations and treatment decisions and hence…
For centuries, scientists have manually designed closed-form ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to model dynamical systems. An automated tool to distill closed-form ODEs from observed trajectories would accelerate the modeling process. Traditionally, symbolic regression is used to uncover a clos…
High model performance, on average, can hide that models may systematically underperform on subgroups of the data. We consider the tabular setting, which surfaces the unique issue of outcome heterogeneity - this is prevalent in areas such as healthcare, where patients with similar features can have…
Systematic quantification of data quality is critical for consistent model performance. Prior works have focused on out-of-distribution data. Instead, we tackle an understudied yet equally important problem of characterizing incongruous regions of in-distribution (ID) data, which may arise from feat…
Devising domain- and model-agnostic evaluation metrics for generative models is an important and as yet unresolved problem. Most existing metrics, which were tailored solely to the image synthesis setup, exhibit a limited capacity for diagnosing the different modes of failure of generative models ac…
Consider the problem of imputing missing values in a dataset. One the one hand, conventional approaches using iterative imputation benefit from the simplicity and customizability of learning conditional distributions directly, but suffer from the practical requirement for appropriate model specifica…
Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) allow us to understand the effect heterogeneity across a large population of individuals. However, typical CATE learners assume all confounding variables are measured in order for the CATE to be identifiable. This requirement can be satisfied by collecti…
Modeling the preferences of agents over a set of alternatives is a principal concern in many areas. The dominant approach has been to find a single reward/utility function with the property that alternatives yielding higher rewards are preferred over alternatives yielding lower rewards. However, in…
Understanding a decision-maker’s priorities by observing their behavior is critical for transparency and accountability in decision processes{—}such as in healthcare. Though conventional approaches to policy learning almost invariably assume stationarity in behavior, this is hardly true in practice:…
Human decision making is well known to be imperfect and the ability to analyse such processes individually is crucial when attempting to aid or improve a decision-maker's ability to perform a task, e.g. to alert them to potential biases or oversights on their part. To do so, it is necessary to devel…
Unsupervised black-box models are challenging to interpret. Indeed, most existing explainability methods require labels to select which component(s) of the black-box’s output to interpret. In the absence of labels, black-box outputs often are representation vectors whose components do not correspond…
Neural Ordinary Differential Equations model dynamical systems with ODEs learned by neural networks. However, ODEs are fundamentally inadequate to model systems with long-range dependencies or discontinuities, which are common in engineering and biological systems. Broader classes of differential eq…
The discovery of structure from time series data is a key problem in fields of study working with complex systems. Most identifiability results and learning algorithms assume the underlying dynamics to be discrete in time. Comparatively few, in contrast, explicitly define dependencies in infinitesim…
Consider learning a decision support assistant to serve as an intermediary between (oracle) expert behavior and (imperfect) human behavior: At each time, the algorithm observes an action chosen by a fallible agent, and decides whether to *accept* that agent's decision, *intervene* with an alternativ…
Building models of human decision-making from observed behaviour is critical to better understand, diagnose and support real-world policies such as clinical care. As established policy learning approaches remain focused on imitation performance, they fall short of explaining the demonstrated decisio…
Discovering relevant input features for predicting a target variable is a key scientific question. However, in many domains, such as medicine and biology, feature selection is confounded by a scarcity of labeled samples coupled with significant correlations among features. In this paper, we propose…
Consider making a prediction over new test data without any opportunity to learn from a training set of labelled data - instead given access to a set of expert models and their predictions alongside some limited information about the dataset used to train them. In scenarios from finance to the medic…
Consider the problem of improving the estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) for a target domain of interest by leveraging related information from a source domain with a different feature space. This heterogeneous transfer learning problem for CATE estimation is ubiquitous in ar…
Integration of data from multiple omics techniques is becoming increasingly important in biomedical research. Due to non-uniformity and technical limitations in omics platforms, such integrative analyses on multiple omics, which we refer to as views, involve learning from incomplete observations wit…
Hypothesis testing can help decision-making by quantifying distributional differences between two populations from observational data. However, these tests may inherit biases embedded in the data collection mechanism (some instances often being systematically more likely included in our sample) and…
We present a general framework for kernel hypothesis testing on distributions of sets of individual examples. Sets may represent many common data sources such as groups of observations in time series, collections of words in text or a batch of images of a given phenomenon. This observation pattern,…
Time-series learning is the bread and butter of data-driven *clinical decision support*, and the recent explosion in ML research has demonstrated great potential in various healthcare settings. At the same time, medical time-series problems in the wild are challenging due to their highly *composite*…
Significant effort has been placed on developing decision support tools to improve patient care. However, drivers of real-world clinical decisions in complex medical scenarios are not yet well-understood, resulting in substantial gaps between these tools and practical applications. In light of this,…
Current approaches for multi-horizon time series forecasting using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) focus on issuing point estimates, which is insufficient for decision-making in critical application domains where an uncertainty estimate is also required. Existing approaches for uncertainty quantifi…
Machine learning models have been criticized for reflecting unfair biases in the training data. Instead of solving for this by introducing fair learning algorithms directly, we focus on generating fair synthetic data, such that any downstream learner is fair. Generating fair synthetic data from unf…
Most existing methods for conditional average treatment effect estimation are designed to estimate the effect of a single cause - only one variable can be intervened on at one time. However, many applications involve simultaneous intervention on multiple variables, which leads to multi-cause treatme…
Modern machine learning models are complicated. Most of them rely on convoluted latent representations of their input to issue a prediction. To achieve greater transparency than a black-box that connects inputs to predictions, it is necessary to gain a deeper understanding of these latent representa…
How can we explain the predictions of a machine learning model? When the data is structured as a multivariate time series, this question induces additional difficulties such as the necessity for the explanation to embody the time dependency and the large number of inputs. To address these challenges…
Understanding human behavior from observed data is critical for transparency and accountability in decision-making. Consider real-world settings such as healthcare, in which modeling a decision-maker’s policy is challenging—with no access to underlying states, no knowledge of environment dynamics, a…
Generating synthetic time-series data is crucial in various application domains, such as medical prognosis, wherein research is hamstrung by the lack of access to data due to concerns over privacy. Most of the recently proposed methods for generating synthetic time-series rely on implicit likelihood…
Modeling a system's temporal behaviour in reaction to external stimuli is a fundamental problem in many areas. Pure Machine Learning (ML) approaches often fail in the small sample regime and cannot provide actionable insights beyond predictions. A promising modification has been to incorporate exper…
Consider learning an imitation policy on the basis of demonstrated behavior from multiple environments, with an eye towards deployment in an unseen environment. Since the observable features from each setting may be different, directly learning individual policies as mappings from features to action…
Decision analysis deals with modeling and enhancing decision processes. A principal challenge in improving behavior is in obtaining a transparent *description* of existing behavior in the first place. In this paper, we develop an expressive, unifying perspective on *inverse decision modeling*: a fra…
Building interpretable parameterizations of real-world decision-making on the basis of demonstrated behavior--i.e. trajectories of observations and actions made by an expert maximizing some unknown reward function--is essential for introspecting and auditing policies in different institutions. In th…
Organ transplantation can improve life expectancy for recipients, but the probability of a successful transplant depends on the compatibility between donor and recipient features. Current medical practice relies on coarse rules for donor-recipient matching, but is short of domain knowledge regarding…
Organ transplantation is often the last resort for treating end-stage illnesses, but managing transplant wait-lists is challenging because of organ scarcity and the complexity of assessing donor-recipient compatibility. In this paper, we develop a data-driven model for (real-time) organ allocation u…
Missing data is an important problem in machine learning practice. Starting from the premise that imputation methods should preserve the causal structure of the data, we develop a regularization scheme that encourages any baseline imputation method to be causally consistent with the underlying data…
The need to evaluate treatment effectiveness is ubiquitous in most of empirical science, and interest in flexibly investigating effect heterogeneity is growing rapidly. To do so, a multitude of model-agnostic, nonparametric meta-learners have been proposed in recent years. Such learners decompose th…
We investigate how to exploit structural similarities of an individual's potential outcomes (POs) under different treatments to obtain better estimates of conditional average treatment effects in finite samples. Especially when it is unknown whether a treatment has an effect at all, it is natural to…
Counterfactual estimation using synthetic controls is one of the most successful recent methodological developments in causal inference. Despite its popularity, the current description only considers time series aligned across units and synthetic controls expressed as linear combinations of observed…
The machine learning (ML) toolbox for estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is expanding rapidly, yet many of its algorithms have been evaluated only on a very limited set of semi-synthetic benchmark datasets. In this paper, we investigate current benchmarking practic…
Phase I clinical trials are designed to test the safety (non-toxicity) of drugs and find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This task becomes significantly more challenging when multiple-drug dose-combinations (DC) are involved, due to the inherent conflict between the exponentially increasing DC can…
Bayesian inference over the reward presents an ideal solution to the ill-posed nature of the inverse reinforcement learning problem. Unfortunately current methods generally do not scale well beyond the small tabular setting due to the need for an inner-loop MDP solver, and even non-Bayesian methods…
We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been well studied in the recent machine learning literature, the…
Most of the medical observational studies estimate the causal treatment effects using electronic health records (EHR), where a patient's covariates and outcomes are both observed longitudinally. However, previous methods focus only on adjusting for the covariates while neglecting the temporal struct…
The goal of understanding decision-making behaviours in clinical environments is of paramount importance if we are to bring the strengths of machine learning to ultimately improve patient outcomes. Mainstream development of algorithms is often geared towards optimal performance in tasks that do not…
Consider learning a generative model for time-series data. The sequential setting poses a unique challenge: Not only should the generator capture the *conditional* dynamics of (stepwise) transitions, but its open-loop rollouts should also preserve the *joint* distribution of (multi-step) trajectorie…
Regularization improves generalization of supervised models to out-of-sample data. Prior works have shown that prediction in the causal direction (effect from cause) results in lower testing error than the anti-causal direction. However, existing regularization methods are agnostic of causality. We…
Deep learning models achieve high predictive accuracy across a broad spectrum of tasks, but rigorously quantifying their predictive uncertainty remains challenging. Usable estimates of predictive uncertainty should (1) cover the true prediction targets with high probability, and (2) discriminate bet…
Identifying when to give treatments to patients and how to select among multiple treatments over time are important medical problems with a few existing solutions. In this paper, we introduce the Counterfactual Recurrent Network (CRN), a novel sequence-to-sequence model that leverages the increasing…
While much attention has been given to the problem of estimating the effect of discrete interventions from observational data, relatively little work has been done in the setting of continuous-valued interventions, such as treatments associated with a dosage parameter. In this paper, we tackle this…
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are instrumental in modelling sequential and time-series data. Yet, when using RNNs to inform decision-making, predictions by themselves are not sufficient {—} we also need estimates of predictive uncertainty. Existing approaches for uncertainty quantification in RNN…
Deciding how to optimally treat a patient, including how to select treatments over time among the multiple available treatments, represents one of the most important issues that need to be addressed in medicine today. A dynamic treatment regime (DTR) is a sequence of treatment rules indicating how t…
Evidence-based decision-making entails collecting (costly) observations about an underlying phenomenon of interest, and subsequently committing to an (informed) decision on the basis of accumulated evidence. In this setting, *active sensing* is the goal-oriented problem of efficiently selecting whic…
Phase I dose-finding trials are increasingly challenging as the relationship between efficacy and toxicity of new compounds (or combination of them) becomes more complex. Despite this, most commonly used methods in practice focus on identifying a Maximum Tolerated Dose (MTD) by learning only from to…
Machine learning has proved its ability to produce accurate models -- but the deployment of these models outside the machine learning community has been hindered by the difficulties of interpreting these models. This paper proposes an algorithm that produces a continuous global interpretation of any…
Transplant-organs are a scarce medical resource. The uniqueness of each organ and the patients' heterogeneous responses to the organs present a unique and challenging machine learning problem. In this problem there are two key challenges: (i) assigning each organ "optimally" to a patient in the queu…
Subgroup analysis of treatment effects plays an important role in applications from medicine to public policy to recommender systems. It allows physicians (for example) to identify groups of patients for whom a given drug or treatment is likely to be effective and groups of patients for which it is…
Consider learning a policy purely on the basis of demonstrated behavior---that is, with no access to reinforcement signals, no knowledge of transition dynamics, and no further interaction with the environment. This
Autoencoder-based learning has emerged as a staple for disciplining representations in unsupervised and semi-supervised settings. This paper analyzes a framework for improving generalization in a purely supervised setting, where the target space is high-dimensional. We motivate and formalize the gen…
Due to the wider availability of modern electronic health records, patient care data is often being stored in the form of time-series. Clustering such time-series data is crucial for patient phenotyping, anticipating patients’ prognoses by identifying “similar” patients, and designing treatment guid…
The estimation of treatment effects is a pervasive problem in medicine. Existing methods for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data assume that there are no hidden confounders, an assumption that is not testable in practice and, if it does not hold, leads to biased estimat…
Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions — this is crucial in high-stakes applications that involve critical de…
Self- and semi-supervised learning frameworks have made significant progress in training machine learning models with limited labeled data in image and language domains. These methods heavily rely on the unique structure in the domain datasets (such as spatial relationships in images or semantic rel…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic has led many countries to impose unprecedented lockdown measures in order to slow down the outbreak. Questions on whether governments have acted promptly enough, and whether lockdown measures can be lifted soon have since been central in public…
Models of disease progression are instrumental for predicting patient outcomes and understanding disease dynamics. Existing models provide the patient with pragmatic (supervised) predictions of risk, but do not provide the clinician with intelligible (unsupervised) representations of disease pathoph…
Survival models derived from health care data are an important support to inform critical screening and therapeutic decisions. Most models however, do not generalize to populations outside the marginal and conditional distribution assumptions for which they were derived. This presents a significant…
We consider the hypothesis testing problem of detecting conditional dependence, with a focus on high-dimensional feature spaces. Our contribution is a new test statistic based on samples from a generative adversarial network designed to approximate directly a conditional distribution that encodes th…
Understanding the predictions of a machine learning model can be as crucial as the model's accuracy in many application domains. However, the black-box nature of most highly-accurate (complex) models is a major hindrance to their interpretability. To address this issue, we introduce the symbolic met…
Differential Privacy is a popular and well-studied notion of privacy. In the era ofbig data that we are in, privacy concerns are becoming ever more prevalent and thusdifferential privacy is being turned to as one such solution. A popular method forensuring differential privacy of a classifier is kno…
The advent of big data brings with it data with more and more dimensions and thus a growing need to be able to efficiently select which features to use for a variety of problems. While global feature selection has been a well-studied problem for quite some time, only recently has the paradigm of ins…
Feature selection is a pervasive problem. The discovery of relevant features can be as important for performing a particular task (such as to avoid overfitting in prediction) as it can be for understanding the underlying processes governing the true label (such as discovering relevant genetic factor…
Machine learning has the potential to assist many communities in using the large datasets that are becoming more and more available. Unfortunately, much of that potential is not being realized because it would require sharing data in a way that compromises privacy. In this paper, we investigate a me…
A good generative model for time-series data should preserve temporal dynamics, in the sense that new sequences respect the original relationships between variables across time. Existing methods that bring generative adversarial networks (GANs) into the sequential setting do not adequately attend to…
The problem of estimating causal effects of treatments from observational data falls beyond the realm of supervised learning {—} because counterfactual data is inaccessible, we can never observe the true causal effects. In the absence of "supervision", how can we evaluate the performance of causal i…
For every prediction we might wish to make, we must decide what to observe (what source of information) and when to observe it. Because making observations is costly, this decision must trade off the value of information against the cost of observation. Making observations (sensing) should be an act…
Estimating individualized treatment effects (ITE) is a challenging task due to the need for an individual's potential outcomes to be learned from biased data and without having access to the counterfactuals. We propose a novel method for inferring ITE based on the Generative Adversarial Nets (GANs)…
The co-occurrence of multiple diseases among the general population is an important problem as those patients have more risk of complications and represent a large share of health care expenditure. Learning to predict time-to-event probabilities for these patients is a challenging problem because th…
Predicated on the increasing abundance of electronic health records, we investigate the problem of inferring individualized treatment effects using observational data. Stemming from the potential outcomes model, we propose a novel multi-task learning framework in which factual and counterfactual out…
Screening is important for the diagnosis and treatment of a wide variety of diseases. A good screening policy should be personalized to the disease, to the features of the patient and to the dynamic history of the patient (including the history of screening). The growth of electronic health recor…
Estimating patient's clinical state from multiple concurrent physiological streams plays an important role in determining if a therapeutic intervention is necessary and for triaging patients in the hospital. In this paper we construct a non-parametric learning algorithm to estimate the clinical stat…
This work examines a stochastic formulation of the generalized Nash equilibrium problem (GNEP) where agents are subject to randomness in the environment of unknown statistical distribution. Three stochastic gradient strategies are developed by relying on a penalty-based approach where the constraine…
We develop a Bayesian model for decision-making under time pressure with endogenous information acquisition. In our model, the decision-maker decides when to observe (costly) information by sampling an underlying continuous-time stochastic process (time series) that conveys information about the pot…
Hospitals are increasingly utilizing business intelligence and analytics tools to mine electronic health data to uncover inefficiencies in care delivery (e.g., slow turnaround times, high readmission rates). Given that the expertise and experience of healthcare providers may vary significantly, an a…
Standard Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problems assume that the arms are independent. However, in many application scenarios, the information obtained by playing an arm provides information about the remainder of the arms. Hence, in such applications, this informativeness can and should be exploited to e…
The goal of this paper is to propose a network formation game where strategic agents decide whether to form or sever a link with other agents depending on the net balance between the benefit resulting from the additional information coming from the new link and the cost associated to establish the l…