31 accepted papers
Credal networks extend Bayesian networks by incorporating imprecise probabilities through convex sets of probability distributions known as credal sets. MAP inference in credal networks, which seeks the most probable variable assignment given evidence, becomes inherently more difficult than in Bayes…
We introduce QueryGym, an interactive environment for building, testing, and evaluating LLM-based query planning agents. Existing frameworks often tie agents to specific query language dialects or obscure their reasoning; QueryGym instead requires agents to construct explicit sequences of relational
Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in generative tasks, yet they often fall short in ensuring the factual accuracy of their outputs thus limiting their reliability in real-world applications where correctness is critical. In this paper, we present FactReasoner, a novel neu
Text-to-SQL aims to translate natural language queries into SQL statements, which is practical as it enables anyone to easily retrieve the desired information from databases. Recently, many existing approaches tackle this problem with Large Language Models (LLMs), leveraging their strong capability…
Causal discovery in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) for dynamic time series data has been widely studied in various applications. Much of the existing work has focused on observational, offline, and/or stationary settings. In this work, we propose a dynamic DAG discovery algorithm, Meta-D…
Many practical reinforcement learning environments have a discrete factored action space that induces a large combinatorial set of actions, thereby posing significant challenges. Existing approaches leverage the regular structure of the action space and resort to a linear decomposition of Q-functio…
When does a large language model (LLM) know what it does not know? Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides measures of uncertainty, such as an estimate of the confidence in an LLM’s generated output, and is therefore increasingly recognized as a crucial component of trusted AI systems. Black-box UQ
In time-series classification, interpretable models can bring additional insights but be outperformed by deep models since human-understandable features have limited expressivity and flexibility. In this work, we present InterpGN, a framework that integrates an interpretable model and a deep neural…
Estimating the confidence of large language model (LLM) outputs is essential for real-world applications requiring high user trust. Black-box uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods, relying solely on model API access, have gained popularity due to their practical benefits. In this paper, we examine
Logical Credal Networks or LCNs were recently introduced as a powerful probabilistic logic framework for representing and reasoning with imprecise knowledge. Unlike many existing formalisms, LCNs have the ability to represent cycles and allow specifying marginal and conditional probability bounds on…
Chronological and Hierarchical Reasoning Over Naturally Occurring Schemas (CHRONOS) is a system that combines language model-based natural language processing with symbolic knowledge representations to analyze and make predictions about newsworthy events. CHRONOS consists of an event-centric informa…
The Logical Credal Network or LCN is a recent probabilistic logic designed for effective aggregation and reasoning over multiple sources of imprecise knowledge. An LCN specifies a set of probability distributions over all interpretations of a set of logical formulas for which marginal and conditiona…
Streams of irregularly occurring events are commonly modeled as a marked temporal point process. Many real-world datasets such as e-commerce transactions and electronic health records often involve events where multiple event types co-occur, e.g. multiple items purchased or multiple diseases diagnos…
Credal networks extend Bayesian networks to allow for imprecision in probability values. Marginal MAP is a widely applicable mixed inference task that identifies the most likely assignment for a subset of variables (called MAP variables). However, the task is extremely difficult to solve in credal…
Although pairwise causal relations have been extensively studied in observational longitudinal analyses across many disciplines, incorporating knowledge of causal pairs into deep learning models for temporal event sequences remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for e…
Discovering knowledge about which types of events influence others, using datasets of event sequences without time stamps, has several practical applications. While neural sequence models are able to capture complex and potentially long-range historical dependencies, they often lack the interpretabi…
Event sequences are widely available across application domains and there is a long history of models for representing and analyzing such datasets. Summary Markov models are a recent addition to the literature that help identify the subset of event types that influence event types of interest to a u…
Graphical event models (GEMs) are representations of temporal point process dynamics between different event types. Many real-world applications however involve limited event stream data, making it challenging to learn GEMs from data alone. In this paper, we introduce approaches that can work togeth…
Datasets involving multivariate event streams are prevalent in numerous applications. We present a novel framework for modeling temporal point processes called clock logic neural networks (CLNN) which learn weighted clock logic (wCL) formulas as interpretable temporal rules by which some events prom…
Most people associate the term `hedging' exclusively with financial applications, particularly the use of financial derivatives. We argue that hedging is an activity that human and machine agents should engage in more broadly, even when the agent's value is not necessarily in monetary units. In this…
Causal discovery in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) for time series data has been widely studied in various domains. The resulting DAG typically represents a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), capturing both the instantaneous and time-delayed relationships among variables of interest. We pro…
We present a toolkit for knowledge-based news event analysis and forecasting. The toolkit is powered by a Knowledge Graph (KG) of events curated from structured and unstructured sources of event-related knowledge. The toolkit provides functions for 1) mapping ongoing news headlines to concepts in th…
In many real-world applications of multi-armed bandit problems, both rewards and contexts are often influenced by confounding latent variables which evolve stochastically over time. While the observed contexts and rewards are nonlinearly related, we show that prior knowledge of latent causal structu…
We introduce Logical Credal Networks (or LCNs for short) -- an expressive probabilistic logic that generalizes prior formalisms that combine logic and probability. Given imprecise information represented by probability bounds and conditional probability bounds on logic formulas, an LCN specifies a s…
Datasets involving sequences of different types of events without meaningful time stamps are prevalent in many applications, for instance when extracted from textual corpora. We propose a family of models for such event sequences -- summary Markov models -- where the probability of observing an even…
Causal inference and discovery from observational data has been extensively studied across multiple fields. However, most prior work has focused on independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. In this paper, we propose a formalization for causal inference between pairs of event variables i…
Graphical event models are representations that capture process independence between different types of events in multivariate temporal point processes. The literature consists of various parametric models and approaches to learn them from multivariate event stream data. Since these models are inter…
Causal discovery from observational data has been intensely studied across fields of study. In this paper, we consider datasets involving irregular occurrences of various types of events over the timeline. We propose a suite of scores and related algorithms for estimating the cause-effect associatio…
In multivariate event data, the instantaneous rate of an event's occurrence may be sensitive to the temporal sequence in which other influencing events have occurred in the history. For example, an agent’s actions are typically driven by preceding actions taken by the agent as well as those of other…
Many real-world domains involve co-evolving relationships between events, such as meals and exercise, and time-varying random variables, such as a patient's blood glucose levels. In this paper, we propose a general framework for modeling joint temporal dynamics involving continuous time transitions…
Event datasets include events that occur irregularly over the timeline and are prevalent in numerous domains. We introduce proximal graphical event models (PGEM) as a representation of such datasets. PGEMs belong to a broader family of models that characterize relationships between various types of…