56 accepted papers
Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sou…
We study the estimation of repeatedly nested expectations (RNEs) with a constant horizon (number of nestings) using quantum computing. We propose a quantum algorithm that achieves $\varepsilon$-error with cost $\tilde O(\varepsilon^{-1})$, up to logarithmic factors. Standard lower bounds show this s…
Diffusion-based generative models increasingly rely on inference-time guidance, adding a drift term or reweighting mixture of experts, to improve sample quality on task-specific objectives. However, most existing techniques require repeated score or gradient evaluations, introducing bias, high compu…
Estimating the difference of two Stein's score functions is a fundamental problem in generative modeling. In particular, score differences arise naturally in transfer learning, where the score difference provides the mechanism for adapting a pre-trained model to a new target distribution, and in dif…
Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are interested in estimating the effects of a policy intervention…
In this work, we consider the data-driven assortment optimization problem under the linear multinomial logit(MNL) choice model. We first establish a improved confidence region for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the $d$-dimensional linear MNL likelihood function that removes the explicit d…
In this paper, we examine the convergence landscape of multi-agent learning under uncertainty. Specifically, we analyze two stochastic models of regularized learning in continuous games—one in continuous and one in discrete time—with the aim of characterizing the long run behavior of the induced seq…
Downsampling or under-sampling is a technique that is utilized in the context of large and highly imbalanced classification models. We study optimal downsampling for imbalanced classification using generalized linear models (GLMs). We propose a pseudo maximum likelihood estimator and study its asymp…
The mean of a random variable can be understood as a *linear* functional on the space of probability distributions. Quantum computing is known to provide a quadratic speedup over classical Monte Carlo methods for mean estimation. In this paper, we investigate whether a similar quadratic speedup is a…
In this paper, we examine the robustness of Nash equilibria in continuous games, under both strategic and dynamic uncertainty. Starting with the former, we introduce the notion of a robust equilibrium as those equilibria that remain invariant to small—but otherwise arbitrary—perturbations to the gam…
We introduce ScoreFusion, a theoretically grounded method for fusing multiple pre-trained diffusion models that are assumed to generate from auxiliary populations. ScoreFusion is particularly useful for enhancing the generative modeling of a target population with limited observed data. Our starting…
We explore the control of stochastic systems with potentially continuous state and action spaces, characterized by the state dynamics $X_{t+1} = f(X_t, A_t, W_t)$. Here, $X$, $A$, and $W$ represent the state, action, and exogenous random noise processes, respectively, with $f$ denoting a known funct…
Causal estimands can vary significantly depending on the relationship between outcomes in treatment and control groups, leading to wide partial identification (PI) intervals that impede decision making. Incorporating covariates can substantially tighten these bounds, but requires determining the ran…
Overparameterized stochastic differential equation (SDE) models have achieved remarkable success in various complex environments, such as PDE-constrained optimization, stochastic control and reinforcement learning, financial engineering, and neural SDEs. These models often feature system evolution c…
In this paper, we propose a novel conceptual framework to detect outliers using optimal transport with a concave cost function. Conventional outlier detection approaches typically use a two-stage procedure: first, outliers are detected and removed, and then estimation is performed on the cleaned dat…
Recent progress in Neural Causal Models (NCMs) showcased how identification and partial identification of causal effects can be automatically carried out via training of neural generative models that respect the constraints encoded in a given causal graph [Xia et al. 2022, Balazadeh et al. 2022]. Ho…
Convergence rate analysis for general state-space Markov chains is fundamentally important in operations research (stochastic systems) and machine learning (stochastic optimization). This problem, however, is notoriously difficult because traditional analytical methods often do not generate practica…
The goal of this paper is to develop distributionally robust optimization (DRO) estimators, specifically for multidimensional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) statistics. EVT supports using semi-parametric models called max-stable distributions built from spatial Poisson point processes. While powerful, t…
The sim-to-real gap, which represents the disparity between training and testing environments, poses a significant challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). A promising approach to addressing this challenge is distributionally robust RL, often framed as a robust Markov decision process (RMDP). In th…
Average reward reinforcement learning (RL) provides a suitable framework for capturing the objective (i.e. long-run average reward) for continuing tasks, where there is often no natural way to identify a discount factor. However, existing average reward RL algorithms with sample complexity guarantee…
We resolve the open question regarding the sample complexity of policy learning for maximizing the long-run average reward associated with a uniformly ergodic Markov decision process (MDP), assuming a generative model. In this context, the existing literature provides a sample complexity upper bound…
Bootstrap is a popular methodology for simulating input uncertainty. However, it can be computationally expensive when the number of samples is large. We propose a new approach called **Orthogonal Bootstrap** that reduces the number of required Monte Carlo replications. We decomposes the target bein…
Aligning generative models with human preference via RLHF typically suffers from overoptimization, where an imperfectly learned reward model can misguide the generative model to output even undesired responses. We investigate this problem in a principled manner by identifying the source of the issue…
To mitigate the limitation that the classical reinforcement learning (RL) framework heavily relies on identical training and test environments, Distributionally Robust RL (DRRL) has been proposed to enhance performance across a range of environments, possibly including unknown test environments. As…
The performance of learning models often deteriorates when deployed in out-of-sample environments. To ensure reliable deployment, we propose a stability evaluation criterion based on distributional perturbations. Conceptually, our stability evaluation criterion is defined as the minimal perturbation…
In this work, we present the Bregman Alternating Projected Gradient (BAPG) method, a single-loop algorithm that offers an approximate solution to the Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) distance. We introduce a novel relaxation technique that balances accuracy and computational efficiency, albeit with some com…
We consider a reinforcement learning setting in which the deployment environment is different from the training environment. Applying a robust Markov decision processes formulation, we extend the distributionally robust Q-learning framework studied in [Liu et. al. 2022]. Further, we improve the desi…
We study distributionally robust offline reinforcement learning (RL), which seeks to find an optimal robust policy purely from an offline dataset that can perform well in perturbed environments. We propose a generic algorithm framework Doubly Pessimistic Model-based Policy Optimization ($\texttt{P}^…
The scarcity of labeled data is a long-standing challenge for many machine learning tasks. We propose our gradient flow method to leverage the existing dataset (i.e., source) to generate new samples that are close to the dataset of interest (i.e., target). We lift both datasets to the space of proba…
Learning mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces have achieved empirical success in many disciplines of machine learning, including generative modeling, functional data analysis, causal inference, and multi-agent reinforcement learning. In this paper, we study the statistical limit of…
In this paper, we study the problem of learning in quantum games - and other classes of semidefinite games - with scalar, payoff-based feedback. For concreteness, we focus on the widely used matrix multiplicative weights (MMW) algorithm and, instead of requiring players to have full knowledge of the…
Nonconvex-nonconcave minimax optimization has received intense attention over the last decade due to its broad applications in machine learning. Most existing algorithms rely on one-sided information, such as the convexity (resp. concavity) of the primal (resp. dual) functions, or other specific str…
We focus on robust estimation of the unobserved state of a discrete-time stochastic system with linear dynamics. A standard analysis of this estimation problem assumes a baseline innovation model; with Gaussian innovations we recover the Kalman filter. However, in many settings, there is insufficien…
This paper studies the use of a machine learning-based estimator as a control variate for mitigating the variance of Monte Carlo sampling. Specifically, we seek to uncover the key factors that influence the efficiency of control variates in reducing variance. We examine a prototype estimation proble…
We study the problem of transfer learning, observing that previous efforts to understand its information-theoretic limits do not fully exploit the geometric structure of the source and target domains. In contrast, our study first illustrates the benefits of incorporating a natural geometric structur…
Reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated remarkable achievements in simulated environments. However, carrying this success to real environments requires the important attribute of robustness, which the existing RL algorithms often lack as they assume that the future deployment environment is the…
In this paper, we study the statistical limits of deep learning techniques for solving elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs) from random samples using the Deep Ritz Method (DRM) and Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). To simplify the problem, we focus on a prototype elliptic PDE: the…
We propose a neural network architecture that enables non-parametric calibration and generation of multivariate extreme value distributions (MEVs). MEVs arise from Extreme Value Theory (EVT) as the necessary class of models when extrapolating a distributional fit over large spatial and temporal sca…
In this paper, we study the statistical limits in terms of Sobolev norms of gradient descent for solving inverse problem from randomly sampled noisy observations using a general class of objective functions. Our class of objective functions includes Sobolev training for kernel regression, Deep Ritz…
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has been shown to offer a principled way to regularize learning models. In this paper, we find that Tikhonov regularization is distributionally robust in an optimal transport sense (i.e. if an adversary chooses distributions in a suitable optimal transport…
Many machine learning tasks that involve predicting an output response can be solved by training a weighted regression model. Unfortunately, the predictive power of this type of models may severely deteriorate under low sample sizes or under covariate perturbations. Reweighting the training samples…
While reinforcement learning has witnessed tremendous success recently in a wide range of domains, robustness–or the lack thereof–remains an important issue that remains inadequately addressed. In this paper, we provide a distributionally robust formulation of offline learning policy in tabular RL t…
We propose a novel Frank-Wolfe (FW) procedure for the optimization of infinite-dimensional functionals of probability measures - a task which arises naturally in a wide range of areas including statistical learning (e.g. variational inference) and artificial intelligence (e.g. generative adversarial…
Least squares estimators, when trained on few target domain samples, may predict poorly. Supervised domain adaptation aims to improve the predictive accuracy by exploiting additional labeled training samples from a source distribution that is close to the target distribution. Given available data, w…
We have developed a statistical testing framework to detect if a given machine learning classifier fails to satisfy a wide range of group fairness notions. Our test is a flexible, interpretable, and statistically rigorous tool for auditing whether exhibited biases are intrinsic to the algorithm or s…
Conditional estimation given specific covariate values (i.e., local conditional estimation or functional estimation) is ubiquitously useful with applications in engineering, social and natural sciences. Existing data-driven non-parametric estimators mostly focus on structured homogeneous data (e.g.,…
We consider the parameter estimation problem of a probabilistic generative model prescribed using a natural exponential family of distributions. For this problem, the typical maximum likelihood estimator usually overfits under limited training sample size, is sensitive to noise and may perform poorl…
Policy learning using historical observational data is an important problem that has found widespread applications. However, existing literature rests on the crucial assumption that the future environment where the learned policy will be deployed is the same as the past environment that has generate…
We consider the problem of estimating the Wasserstein distance between the empirical measure and a set of probability measures whose expectations over a class of functions (hypothesis class) are constrained. If this class is sufficiently rich to characterize a particular distribution (e.g., all Lips…
We build a Bayesian contextual classification model using an optimistic score ratio for robust binary classification when there is limited information on the class-conditional, or contextual, distribution. The optimistic score searches for the distribution that is most plausible to explain the obser…
In this paper, we consider online learning in generalized linear contextual bandits where rewards are not immediately observed. Instead, rewards are available to the decision maker only after some delay, which is unknown and stochastic, even though a decision must be made at each time step for an in…
This paper proposes a novel non-parametric multidimensional convex regression estimator which is designed to be robust to adversarial perturbations in the empirical measure. We minimize over convex functions the maximum (over Wasserstein perturbations of the empirical measure) of the absolute regres…
Consider a player that in each of T rounds chooses one of K arms. An adversary chooses the cost of each arm in a bounded interval, and a sequence of feedback delays \left{ d
The goal of this paper is to provide a unifying view of a wide range of problems of interest in machine learning by framing them as the minimization of functionals defined on the space of probability measures. In particular, we show that generative adversarial networks, variational inference, and ac…
Motivated by the application of real-time pricing in e-commerce platforms, we consider the problem of revenue-maximization in a setting where the seller can leverage contextual information describing the customer's history and the product's type to predict her valuation of the product. However, her…
In many platforms, user arrivals exhibit a self-reinforcing behavior: future user arrivals are likely to have preferences similar to users who were satisfied in the past. In other words, arrivals exhibit {\em positive externalities}. We study multiarmed bandit (MAB) problems with positive externalit…