64 accepted papers
Machine learning models are increasingly trained or fine-tuned on synthetic data. Recursively training on such data has been observed to significantly degrade performance in a wide range of tasks, often characterized by a progressive drift away from the target distribution. In this work, we theoreti…
We show that language models’ activations linearly encode when information was learned during training. Our setup involves creating a model with a known training order by sequentially fine-tuning Llama-3.2-1B on six disjoint but otherwise similar datasets about named entities. We find that the avera…
We study the application of graph random features (GRFs) – a recently-introduced stochastic estimator of graph node kernels – to scalable Gaussian processes on discrete input spaces. We prove that (under mild assumptions) Bayesian inference with GRFs enjoys $\mathcal{O}(N^{3/2})$ time complexity wit…
Neural Processes (NPs), and specifically Transformer Neural Processes (TNPs), have demonstrated remarkable performance across tasks ranging from spatiotemporal forecasting to tabular data modelling. However, many of these applications are inherently sequential, involving continuous data streams such…
Dominant approaches for modelling Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) rely on deterministic predictions, yet many physical systems of interest are inherently chaotic and uncertain. While training probabilistic models from scratch is possible, it is computationally expensive and fails to leverage t…
We study the extent to which rotary position encodings (RoPE), a recent transformer position encoding algorithm broadly adopted in large language models (LLMs) and vision transformers (ViTs), can be applied to graph-structured data. We find that rotating tokens depending on the spectrum of the graph…
The need for regression models to predict circular values arises in many scientific fields. In this work we explore a family of expressive and interpretable distributions over circle-valued random functions related to Gaussian processes targeting two Euclidean dimensions conditioned on the unit circ…
Randomness is an unavoidable part of training deep learning models, yet something that traditional training data attribution algorithms fail to rigorously account for. They ignore the fact that, due to stochasticity in the initialisation and batching, training on the same dataset can yield different…
In scientific domains---from biology to the social sciences---many questions boil down to \textit{What effect will we observe if we intervene on a particular variable?} If the causal relationships (e.g.~a causal graph) are known, its possible to estimate the intervention distributions. In the absenc…
Effective modelling of large-scale spatio-temporal datasets is essential for many domains, yet existing approaches often impose rigid constraints on the input data, such as requiring them to lie on fixed-resolution grids. With the rise of foundation models, the ability to process diverse, heterogene…
Diffusion models have led to significant advancements in generative modelling. Yet their widespread adoption poses challenges regarding data attribution and interpretability. In this paper, we aim to help address such challenges in diffusion models by extending influence functions. Influence functio…
When training transformers on graph-structured data, incorporating information about the underlying topology is crucial for good performance. Topological masking, a type of relative position encoding, achieves this by upweighting or downweighting attention depending on the relationship between the q…
Causal inference is a key research area in machine learning, yet confusion reigns over the tools needed to tackle it. There are prevalent claims in the machine learning literature that you need a bespoke causal framework or notation to answer causal questions. In this paper, we make it clear that yo…
The recent success of Shampoo in the AlgoPerf contest has sparked renewed interest in Kronecker-factorization-based optimization algorithms for training neural networks. Despite its success, Shampoo relies heavily on several heuristics such as learning rate grafting and stale preconditioning to achi…
Random features (RFs) are a popular technique to scale up kernel methods in machine learning, replacing exact kernel evaluations with stochastic Monte Carlo estimates. They underpin models as diverse as efficient transformers (by approximating attention) to sparse spectrum Gaussian processes (by app…
Correctly capturing the symmetry transformations of data can lead to efficient models with strong generalization capabilities, though methods incorporating symmetries often require prior knowledge. While recent advancements have been made in learning those symmetries directly from the dataset, most…
Equivariant deep learning architectures exploit symmetries in learning problems to improve the sample efficiency of neural-network-based models and their ability to generalise. However, when modelling real-world data, learning problems are often not *exactly* equivariant, but only approximately. For…
Adaptive gradient optimizers like Adam(W) are the default training algorithms for many deep learning architectures, such as transformers. Their diagonal preconditioner is based on the gradient outer product which is incorporated into the parameter update via a square root. While these methods are of…
Expectation propagation (EP) is a family of algorithms for performing approximate inference in probabilistic models. The updates of EP involve the evaluation of moments—expectations of certain functions—which can be estimated from Monte Carlo (MC) samples. However, the updates are not robust to MC n…
Recently, nonlinear ICA has surfaced as a popular alternative to the many heuristic models used in deep representation learning and disentanglement. An advantage of nonlinear ICA is that a sophisticated identifiability theory has been developed; in particular, it has been proven that the original co…
Machine learning practitioners often face significant challenges in formally integrating their prior knowledge and beliefs into predictive models, limiting the potential for nuanced and context-aware analyses. Moreover, the expertise needed to integrate this prior knowledge into probabilistic modeli…
Many high-stakes applications require machine learning models that protect user privacy and provide well-calibrated, accurate predictions. While Differential Privacy (DP) is the gold standard for protecting user privacy, standard DP mechanisms typically significantly impair performance. One approach…
Modelling partial differential equations (PDEs) is of crucial importance in science and engineering, and it includes tasks ranging from forecasting to inverse problems, such as data assimilation. However, most previous numerical and machine learning approaches that target forecasting cannot be appli…
Natural gradient methods have been used to optimise the parameters of probability distributions in a variety of settings, often resulting in fast-converging procedures. Unfortunately, for many distributions of interest, computing the natural gradient has a number of challenges. In this work we propo…
In drug development, early phase dose-finding clinical trials are carried out to identify an optimal dose to administer to patients in larger confirmatory clinical trials. Standard trial procedures do not optimize for participant benefit and do not consider participant heterogeneity, despite consequ…
Second-order methods such as KFAC can be useful for neural net training. However, they are often memory-inefficient since their preconditioning Kronecker factors are dense, and numerically unstable in low precision as they require matrix inversion or decomposition. These limitations render such meth…
The effectiveness of neural processes (NPs) in modelling posterior prediction maps---the mapping from data to posterior predictive distributions---has significantly improved since their inception. This improvement can be attributed to two principal factors: (1) advancements in the architecture of pe…
Conditional neural processes (CNPs; Garnelo et al., 2018a) are attractive meta-learning models which produce well-calibrated predictions and are trainable via a simple maximum likelihood procedure. Although CNPs have many advantages, they are unable to model dependencies in their predictions. Variou…
Modern deep learning systems are increasingly deployed in situations such as personalization and federated learning where it is necessary to support i) learning on small amounts of data, and ii) communication efficient distributed training protocols. In this work, we develop FiLM Transfer (FiT) whic…
In Class-Incremental Learning (CIL) an image classification system is exposed to new classes in each learning session and must be updated incrementally. Methods approaching this problem have updated both the classification head and the feature extractor body at each session of CIL. In this work, we…
Denoising diffusion models have proven to be a flexible and effective paradigm for generative modelling. Their recent extension to infinite dimensional Euclidean spaces has allowed for the modelling of stochastic processes. However, many problems in the natural sciences incorporate symmetries and in…
The core components of many modern neural network architectures, such as transformers, convolutional, or graph neural networks, can be expressed as linear layers with *weight-sharing*. Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (K-FAC), a second-order optimisation method, has shown promise to speed up…
Time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Recently, mostly due to the high computational cost of traditional solution techniques, deep neural network based surrogates have gained increased interest. The practical utility of such neural PDE solver…
Isotropic Gaussian priors are the de facto standard for modern Bayesian neural network inference. However, it is unclear whether these priors accurately reflect our true beliefs about the weight distributions or give optimal performance. To find better priors, we study summary statistics of neural n…
Recent years have seen a growth in user-centric applications that require effective knowledge transfer across tasks in the low-data regime. An example is personalization, where a pretrained system is adapted by learning on small amounts of labeled data belonging to a specific user. This setting requ…
The Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM; Tobar et al., 2015a) is a model for signals with complex spectral structure. A significant limitation of the GPCM is that it assumes a rapidly decaying spectrum: it can only model smooth signals. Moreover, inference in the GPCM currently requires (1) a m…
Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs; Garnelo et al., 2018a) are meta-learning models which leverage the flexibility of deep learning to produce well-calibrated predictions and naturally handle off-the-grid and missing data. CNPs scale to large datasets and train with ease. Due to these features, CNPs…
Recent interest in learning large variational Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) has been partly hampered by poor predictive performance caused by underfitting, and their performance is known to be very sensitive to the prior over weights. Current practice often fixes the prior parameters to standard v…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are important probabilistic tools for inference and learning in spatio-temporal modelling problems such as those in climate science and epidemiology. However, existing GP approximations do not simultaneously support large numbers of off-the-grid spatial data-points and long…
Continual learning deals with training models on new tasks and datasets in an online fashion. One strand of research has used probabilistic regularization for continual learning, with two of the main approaches in this vein being Online Elastic Weight Consolidation (Online EWC) and Variational Conti…
In this paper, we investigate the question: _Given a small number of datapoints, for example $N = 30$, how tight can PAC-Bayes and test set bounds be made?_ For such small datasets, test set bounds adversely affect generalisation performance by withholding data from the training procedure. In this s…
Meta learning approaches to few-shot classification are computationally efficient at test time, requiring just a few optimization steps or single forward pass to learn a new task, but they remain highly memory-intensive to train. This limitation arises because a task's entire support set, which can…
Approaches to continual learning aim to successfully learn a set of related tasks that arrive in an online manner. Recently, several frameworks have been developed which enable deep learning to be deployed in this learning scenario. A key modelling decision is to what extent the architecture should…
We introduce the Convolutional Conditional Neural Process (ConvCNP), a new member of the Neural Process family that models translation equivariance in the data. Translation equivariance is an important inductive bias for many learning problems including time series modelling, spatial data, and image…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes (VB) is theoretically grounded, generally applicable, and c…
The goal of this paper is to design image classification systems that, after an initial multi-task training phase, can automatically adapt to new tasks encountered at test time. We introduce a conditional neural process based approach to the multi-task classification setting for this purpose, and es…
In this paper, we address the ice-start problem, i.e., the challenge of deploying machine learning models when only a little or no training data is initially available, and acquiring each feature element of data is associated with costs. This setting is representative of the real-world machine learn…
Bayesian methods promise to fix many shortcomings of deep learning, but they are impractical and rarely match the performance of standard methods, let alone improve them. In this paper, we demonstrate practical training of deep networks with natural-gradient variational inference. By applying techni…
Multi-output regression models must exploit dependencies between outputs to maximise predictive performance. The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to this setting typically yields models that are computationally demanding and have limited representational power. We present the Gaussian Process…
Whilst deep neural networks have shown great empirical success, there is still much work to be done to understand their theoretical properties. In this paper, we study the relationship between Gaussian processes with a recursive kernel definition and random wide fully connected feedforward networks…
Monte Carlo sampling in high-dimensional, low-sample settings is important in many machine learning tasks. We improve current methods for sampling in Euclidean spaces by avoiding independence, and instead consider ways to couple samples. We show fundamental connections to optimal transport theory,…
Implicit models, which allow for the generation of samples but not for point-wise evaluation of probabilities, are omnipresent in real-world problems tackled by machine learning and a hot topic of current research. Some examples include data simulators that are widely used in engineering and scienti…
Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for forecasting, removing noise, and interpreting long temporal datasets. State space modelling (Kalman filtering) enables these non-parametric models to be deployed on long datasets by reducing the complexity to linear in the number of data points. Th…
This paper develops variational continual learning (VCL), a simple but general framework for continual learning that fuses online variational inference (VI) and recent advances in Monte Carlo VI for neural networks. The framework can successfully train both deep discriminative models and deep genera…
Off-policy model-free deep reinforcement learning methods using previously collected data can improve sample efficiency over on-policy policy gradient techniques. On the other hand, on-policy algorithms are often more stable and easier to use. This paper examines, both theoretically and empirically,…
Model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods have been successful in a wide variety of simulated domains. However, a major obstacle facing deep RL in the real world is their high sample complexity. Batch policy gradient methods offer stable learning, but at the cost of high variance, which of…
This paper proposes a general method for improving the structure and quality of sequences generated by a recurrent neural network (RNN), while maintaining information originally learned from data, as well as sample diversity. An RNN is first pre-trained on data using maximum likelihood estimation (M…
Sparse pseudo-point approximations for Gaussian process (GP) models provide a suite of methods that support deployment of GPs in the large data regime and enable analytic intractabilities to be sidestepped. However, the field lacks a principled method to handle streaming data in which both the poste…
The approach of training sequence models using supervised learning and next-step prediction suffers from known failure modes. For example, it is notoriously difficult to ensure multi-step generated sequences have coherent global structure. We propose a novel sequence-learning approach in which we u…
This paper introduces the variational Rényi bound (VR) that extends traditional variational inference to Rényi's alpha-divergences. This new family of variational methods unifies a number of existing approaches, and enables a smooth interpolation from the evidence lower-bound to the log (marginal) l…
We introduce the Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM), a two-stage nonparametric generative procedure to model stationary signals as the convolution between a continuous-time white-noise process and a continuous-time linear filter drawn from Gaussian process. The GPCM is a continuous-time nonpa…
In complex-valued signal processing, estimation algorithms require complete knowledge (or accurate estimation) of the second order statistics, this makes Gaussian processes (GP) well suited for modelling complex signals, as they are designed in terms of covariance functions. Dealing with bivariate s…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is a popular class of methods for sampling from an intractable target distribution using a sequence of simpler intermediate distributions. Like other importance sampling-based methods, performance is critically dependent on the proposal distributi…
Expectation propagation (EP) is a deterministic approximation algorithm that is often used to perform approximate Bayesian parameter learning. EP approximates the full intractable posterior distribution through a set of local-approximations that are iteratively refined for each datapoint. EP can off…